The Virtualization War — Who Will “Win”?

As we continue to push our virtualization practice forward in this constantly evolving ecosystem, more and more people are asking, and responding to, one very large question…will Microsoft’s Hyper-V “win” against VMware’s ESX platform? So, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to throw my hat (aka, my opinion), into the ring yet again.

For the record, I’ve stated my opinion publicly in our blog and other forums. I’ll continue to do so as many others do, but the more I read, the more I’m intrigued by one word that continues to pop up in many other articles. It’s the word “win”. In the world of virtualization, or technology for that matter, what does “win” really mean?

Here’s my definition of “win”, in the context of virtualization. Winning in virtualization requires the following criteria to be met.

1. Your solution is proven, trusted and runs in both pre-production and production environments.
2. You’ve taken a larger percentage of the virtualization market than your competitor “thinks” you should have. How do you define this? Grab any market segment and add “1%” to your current market share. Catch my drift?
3. Your name is either Microsoft or VMware.
4. Your customers, and partners, support your product, promote it, and reference it as if it was their best friend.
   

Basically what I’m saying is that, quantifying a “win” in virtualization is not holding 51% of the global market share. Ignore points 1, 2 and 3 and skip directly to point number 4. A true win is having the trust and support of your customers and partners.

Will Microsoft take more market share away from VMware? Yes!! Does that mean that VMware has a worse product than Microsoft? No!! Defining whether a product is “good” or “bad” depends on the requirements of the environment in which the technology will be deployed.

But, in the end, who will ultimately win? Personally, I really hope it’s the customer who wins, regardless of the solution they choose. If they’re not the true winner, virtualization will not be the topic of discussion. However, if you want me to get really aggressive and give a better prediction, see my prior posts or read the following.

The Winners:
Large Enterprise Winner = VMware
SMB Winner = Microsoft

Disagree? Let me know.